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Is the property market heading for a tumble?

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Would be worth considering the Herald Sun article too linked from Pape's article:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mor...-1226106264823
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Quote:

Originally Posted by CheelWinston View Post

I've been looking at a few apartments in Sydney around the 400k mark, they've already wiped 10k off their prices within a few weeks of being listed. The last 'expert' [lol] I heard discussing this was a dude from MLC who predicted prices would drop 10-15% in the next two years.

dont worry guys, I'm sure the market is waiting until just after I buy (probably around the end of the year) before it proper crashes. FML.|

Apartments are OK for rental income but always a risky investment if you're after long term capital growth. Other than perhaps renovate the kitchen & bathroom there's little you can do to add value, and strata will forever eat into your expenses. You cant go wrong with a good sized block of land & a free standing dwelling close to the CBD & transport, but of course you'll need to double that $400k - at least..
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You've got to be kidding me, interest rates on hold!? - Looks like the RBA is stuck between inflation of consumer goods and deflation of assets. Absolute bullshit maaayyyte

Given a choice between inflation and crunching some house prices, the choice was inflation. This confirms that the RBA is well aware of the super-bubble and wants to bring it down very gently. They may as well remove the reference to inflation from their goal and replace it with the stability of asset prices. Inflation demanded an interest rate increase, and the statement from them offers little more than hope that inflation magically falls by itself.

Meh, it's either rate rises or rising cost of living - Chose your poison. Overleveraged debtors are going to get smashed anyway, mainly due to their own irresponsibility, negative equity beckons for many of them. Just let the whole thing burn down already.

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Of course rates were left on hold, it was always going to be on hold. With the consumer confidence and manufacturing output as it was for the quarter, not to mention the debt issues in the US & Europe, even with inflation outside the target band they weren't going to raise it.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Bender View Post

Would be worth considering the Herald Sun article too linked from Pape's article:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mor...-1226106264823

That makes it even more grubby. Lachlan Harris is just as entitled to make a quid as the next bloke, which he won't do unless he can offer a better deal than the next bloke - and if he engages in misleading and deceptive conduct, he should get belted by ASIC just as hard as the next bloke.
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dsilvr, don't be so naive to think the rba rates decision is some dichotomy between inflation and house prices
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Quote:

Originally Posted by phoneyhuh View Post

Apartments are OK for rental income but always a risky investment if you're after long term capital growth. Other than perhaps renovate the kitchen & bathroom there's little you can do to add value, and strata will forever eat into your expenses. You cant go wrong with a good sized block of land & a free standing dwelling close to the CBD & transport, but of course you'll need to double that $400k - at least..

i disagree to an extent. Demographics are changing so rapidly, particularly in the larger cities that apartments will be to most future Australians what the quarter acre block was to generation x.

The trick to apartment investing is to invest in areas closer to the city, with little supply potential, but good access to infrastructure and transport. The lower north shore and eastern suburbs are areas that have little opportunity for new supply of apartments and demand will always be high in these areas.

There are numerous areas in Sydney that have shown good double digit capital growth in apartment values over the last 7 years
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Quote:

Originally Posted by DSILVR View Post

You've got to be kidding me, interest rates on hold!? - Looks like the RBA is stuck between inflation of consumer goods and deflation of assets. Absolute bullshit maaayyyte

Given a choice between inflation and crunching some house prices, the choice was inflation. This confirms that the RBA is well aware of the super-bubble and wants to bring it down very gently. They may as well remove the reference to inflation from their goal and replace it with the stability of asset prices. Inflation demanded an interest rate increase, and the statement from them offers little more than hope that inflation magically falls by itself.

Meh, it's either rate rises or rising cost of living - Chose your poison. Overleveraged debtors are going to get smashed anyway, mainly due to their own irresponsibility, negative equity beckons for many of them. Just let the whole thing burn down already.

Perhaps we should all invest in bananas?

if you wanted to bring about a potential recession then sure, raise the rates. unfortunately its only the mining industry doing really well at the moment. interest rates are too blunt a method to bring down the heat in the mining sector without crushing other parts of the economy. better off putting a tax on those 'super profits' and distributing that back to the broader economy through tax cuts imo.
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is there a difference between people who cheer for house prices to go up and those who cheer for them to come down?

I think it has less to do with people deriving pleasure from other people s misfortune and more to do with their desire to gain a future economic benefit/advantage.
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The people who most want land values to go up in their area are owner-occupiers whose life-savings are in their home. If you're leasing real estate to someone who's paying rent or have savings elsewhere, you're less concerned.

The people who most want land values to go down are those who should be able to buy a home but are uncomfortable choosing one within their means.
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I just think its not a particularly productive use of such a massive proportion of Australian capital.

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If there's a problem with housing affordability in cities, it's best addressed by increasing the supply of affordable housing in suitable parts of major cities. Affordable housing need not mean basic. Suitable places will be major transport nodes or places with concentrations of business activity.

Meddling with the demand for existing properties (increasing or decreasing it) will serve political ends but will go against the interest of society as a whole. That includes government grants to buy existing homes (increasing demand) or grants biased at getting people to buy in remote areas (decreasing demand).

Measures to promote the construction of new housing in suitable places, either by increasing demand or by increasing supply, may be useful where there's not enough housing.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by EeeeeeeJ View Post

If there's a problem with housing affordability in cities, it's best addressed by increasing the supply of affordable housing in suitable parts of major cities. Affordable housing need not mean basic. Suitable places will be major transport nodes or places with concentrations of business activity.

Increasing supply of affordable housing in areas where people want to live is the obvious solution and almost goes without saying. The problem is a) NIMBY's who oppose development and b) local and state governments who make life difficult for developers with red tape and ridiculous heritage trust nonsense. Almost every large development in inner-city Sydney for eg is met with stern local opposition crying "whaaaa it's going to roon our village" and councils are forced to kowtow to their ratepayers complaints or else have to attend lengthy & costly battles in the land & environment courts or - at worst - they're voted out and replaced with Greens councilors. eg: Balmain, Leichardt etc.

Now if local & state govt's could be stripped of many powers for DA rejections and it was made extremely difficult for local residents to get their way, entire strips of houses could be bought out and replaced with Meriton Megaplexes - increasing supply and solving the housing affordability crisis within a few years, but the flipside of this is it would also turn previously quaint inner-city suburbs into mini-surfers paradises. What would you prefer?

Last edited by phoneyhuh: 03-Aug-11 at 09:53pm

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Quote:

Originally Posted by EeeeeeeJ View Post

The people who most want land values to go up in their area are owner-occupiers whose life-savings are in their home. If you're leasing real estate to someone who's paying rent or have savings elsewhere, you're less concerned.

The people who most want land values to go down are those who should be able to buy a home but are uncomfortable choosing one within their means.

It is a very complicated issue, but the fact remains: Every dollar that house prices go up is another dollar somebody else has to pay.

Homeowners can expect a gain $1 in assets, Non-homeowners can expect a reduction of $1 in assets.

I also think that "within their means" isnt a very balanced way to approch the topic of house prices and people wishing to get into the market.

A $A1m median house price area maybe within someones mean, but that doesnt take into account whether or not that market is overvalued. It also doesnt take into account many of the policies which may have contributed to house prices reaching that level. For example: Negative-gearing which in the opinion of some is homeowners being subsidies by non-homeowners.

I dont really want to stick up for either party but what is the difference between these two parties and what you would expect in every other commercial transaction?

Each party wants the best outcome and the best outcome for one party is usually at the detriment of the other.
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'affordable' housing can only be produced by government. No private sector developer is capable of delivering affordable housing at the sorts of profit margins that makes it worthwhile for them to do it.

That's what the role of Landcom was supposed to be in NSW, but Landcom has essentially become a profit centre for the state government.

The State and Federal government are large owners of land and instead of selling surplus government land for the highest price to developers, the govt. should be developing that land at notional land value and supply affordable housing, not public housing, but housing which is sold to key workers only.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by PhoneyHuh

entire strips of houses could be bought out and replaced with Meriton Megaplexes - increasing supply and solving the housing affordability crisis within a few years, but the flipside of this is it would also turn previously quaint inner-city suburbs into mini-surfers paradises. What would you prefer?

The corresponding question is market gardens, orchards and fields with cattle and the occasional horse turn into hectares of Delfin housing. What would you prefer

You can regulate urban consolidation so as to preserve heritage. You can mandate a minimum amount of greenery in new projects (and the owners' corporation will keep it). It's harder to manage the number of houses that it would take to house the same number of people.
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plenty of cities around the world have managed to pull off medium-high density housing in a tasteful way that makes it a pleasure to live in and look at. Of course most of them were done prior to the bottom-line focused paradigm that exists today.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by sneaky hands View Post

plenty of cities around the world have managed to pull off medium-high density housing in a tasteful way that makes it a pleasure to live in and look at. Of course most of them were done prior to the bottom-line focused paradigm that exists today.

i haven't seen too many in my travels. I haven't been to Canada, but from what i've seen in the U.S and Europe, we do a far better job of medium density housing here in Australia.
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here's a couple of interesting links on the topic of density:

http://www.infrastructurist.com/2011...it-into-texas/

"The wonderful density blog Per Square Mile gives us a graphic rendering of how much space the world’s population of 6.9 billion would need if it were as dense as certain cities."

http://www.apartmenttherapy.com/chic...ain+%28Main%29
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I think density is great, but not for density's sake. Parts of New York are nothing more than upmarket shanty towns and i really don't think that's the way we need to live or should be living in a civilised society. Australian cities can accomodate far higher densities, but i think we need to keep a handle on some of the aspects that make our cities infinitely more 'liveable' than New York.
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no arguments from me there. In Australia there seems to be an opposing force that demands low density for its own sake, which carries its own environmental and economic costs.
I'm not sure what's worse, an "upmarket shanty town" or a soulless outer suburb with minimal infrastructure and absolute dependence on cars for transport.
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What makes a shanty town will be important in making that comparison. I'm presuming that all upmarket homes in New York have working sewerage, are free from leaks and flooding, have clean water on tap, have secure windows and doors, have other utilities like electricity connected, and that the people living there are comfortable.

When someone describes a new inner city development, like Victoria Harbour in Melbourne, as a "rich person's ghetto", what they mostly mean is that they expect many of the occupants to be non-white. They don't expect there to be health/hygiene problems and most crime is likely to be from drunk outsiders. "Shanty town" doesn't have the ethnic connotations of "ghetto".
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i was exaggerating on the shanty town comment, but take the glitz of the upper east side, mid-town and some areas of Queens away from New York, and it's a pretty dingy urban environment IMO and one that i don't think many Australians would want to emulate as far as living is concerned

Last edited by buffed: 05-Aug-11 at 12:18pm

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Yeah, there are a lot of shit parts of Manhattan that you wouldn't willingly live in unless it was Manhattan.
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Looks like shit is stabilising

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Quote:

Originally Posted by buffed View Post

i was exaggerating on the shanty town comment, but take the glitz of the upper east side, mid-town and some areas of Queens away from New York, and it's a pretty dingy urban environment IMO and one that i don't think many Australians would want to emulate as far as living is concerned

I'd say the area near the Bronx around the Intersections of the I-95 and the I-87 would be one of the worst places in America to live, regardless of the fact it is only 4k from Central Park.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by phoneyhuh View Post

Apartments are OK for rental income but always a risky investment if you're after long term capital growth. Other than perhaps renovate the kitchen & bathroom there's little you can do to add value, and strata will forever eat into your expenses. You cant go wrong with a good sized block of land & a free standing dwelling close to the CBD & transport, but of course you'll need to double that $400k - at least..


I'm sort of just looking for a place to live in... strange huh

although it would be nice if the price of the place at least doesn't go down in the time we live there.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by CheelWinston View Post

I'm sort of just looking for a place to live in... strange huh

although it would be nice if the price of the place at least doesn't go down in the time we live there.

it would be nice, but it is also entirely conceivable that it does go down
which is what happened in Japan,
looking at Tokyo here which is a pretty extreme but very interesting example,
a year after the bubble was pricked there were 3 years of relative stability, followed by 15 years of stability but only in the rate of decline, mathematically speaking it is actually quite beautiful.

You may notice the little upkick at then end, so yes it's true, real estate always goes up.



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so i've got an exam on property tomorrow, i'm cramming theory right now but i have a feeling that there will be a question like 'provide a snapshot of the current property market' or something similar. if someone who has an interest in this area is feeling generous, would you please suggest a couple of points i should mention? i'd be super grateful.
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Hong Kong's housing market is pretty awesome too, Horst.

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That Hong Kong chart looks a bit different if it includes the two most recent years of data.



Although that bubble is probably about to burst again.
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It's even more ridiculous if you know that in Hong Kong people often don't rent out investment properties and just leave them sitting vacant waiting for prices to rise.

That's a long time to not get rent while paying rates and probably making mortgage payments.
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People say that about Australian real estate owners and are greeted with scepticism. If it were true, rents would be higher for those who were leasing real estate but those who weren't leasing would get no money. You also can't claim tax deductions for expenditure incurred on a home unless it's actually being let.

In Australia, there are inevitably some homes vacant because the lessor just hasn't got a tenant yet, or because the home needs maintenance. Some people also like to have a holiday home in different city from where they normally live.

Is there a reason why you would own real estate in Hong Kong but not use it? They might not have the same tax incentives to lease a home.
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''The banks gave Australia these low-doc products so anyone with some equity and a pulse could qualify for a loan,'' she said.

"The loan is made for whatever worthy purpose but the client is told not to worry about repayments as the repayments can be made from the principal of the loan. Sound familiar?"

http://www.smh.com.au/business/a-cos...413-1wynu.html
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Interesting but in this instance i'd be more inclined to blame the financial advisor than the bank. My personal experience with Low-doc loans (from a bank side) is that the bank is significantly more cautious and much less likely to give leeway with regards to missed payments or anything that could compromise the loan. If, in fact, a loan is set up so that repayments come out of the principle, then that tends to be an artefact of what product is applied for, the structure of the loan and the total amount of the loan compared to how much is actually drawn. All of those things rest with the broker, who *should* be appropriately qualified to advise the customer as to the best option for their financial position. Unfortunately, commission systems and plain idiocy tend to mean that may not be the case.

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"the latest generation of home owners will be unable to rely on their home as a key source of higher wealth"

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate...525-1za40.html
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"Anthony Perris tried to sell his house, but no one had the money to buy it. "What's the use of owning things when you don't have any money to buy food?" Perris asked in his suicide note."

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Is there any real reason you're just posting things that are, at best, tangentially related to the Australian property market without any sort of explanation of what you'd like to highlight?

Other than that you're a bit dim, of course.
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I finally managed to buy a home on the weekend after a year of looking. We've missed out on a lot of properties at auction, where people seem to have been paying well above what we thought was a reasonable market price just to secure them. Because I'm such a shit handyman we've been looking for fully renovated places that seem to attract a lot of interest.

Somehow the stars aligned this weekend and there was only one other couple bidding, and we ended up negotiating with the vendor to get it for $35k under their reserve. Obviously you can't take a single example as a sign of a slowing market, but after a year of watching prices increase on us it felt good to finally win one!

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Congrats man.

I can only see house prices going down. I just can't see how this next generation are going to be able to afford current prices.
There has to be a limit in growth
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Thanks guys, we're pretty pumped

I haven't seen a single argument yet that can overcome the fact that demand in Sydney far outstrips supply. Yes it's expensive but there are always people prepared to pay.
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whens the house warming?
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Quote:

Originally Posted by jdoodle View Post

whens the house warming?

There's no scientific evidence house warming even exists. It's all a plot of scientists trying to attract the funding dollars of the reverse-cycle airconditioning industry.

No, wait.
I may have gotten my issues mixed here.
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Need sydney3000 to post some graphs on house prices in Turkmenistan.
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Need sydney3000 to post some graphs on house prices in Turkmenistan.

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