I think when it comes to the new consoles they'll offer both a subscription and outright purchase just like phones, but they'll leave the outright price so that it's more expensive than the plan, using discounted XBL in the plan to offset. Then, like phones, you'll have a few plan combos of upfront, monthly fee and contract duration.
I suppose it should attract earlier adoption of the new consoles when the hardware launch prices (up around $800) are usually prohibitive for a lot of the market.
Getting good traction at the launch of the next console gen is going to be pretty critical. Sony dropped the ball last time by putting too much expensive and custom tech in the PS3, thus making it a prick of a thing to code for. Despite the PS3's superior power, the 360 set to benchmark, and outside of a couple of first-party titles, the PS3's extra power was nullified. Sony won't make the same mistake again. They'll launch at the same time, and the PS4's spec will be much closer to the NextBox's and the coding environment will be native.
So much of the early playing field for next gen won't be determined by price and tech like it was last time (such as the BluRay/no BluRay decision), but rather by three things: first-party titles, third-party exclusives, and who gets the most early adopters. So the subscription model seems to have a lot to do with the third point.
However, there is one big wildcard on the point of tech: Kinect 2.0. I'm crystal balling that the NextBox is going to sport integrated Kinect that:
- has a meatier cable connection with the main unit to reduce response times.
- has a dedicated onboard processor in the main unit that doesn't compromise game processing (and further reduces response times). This might even have something to do with the "two PCs taped together" comments.
- has much higher resolution camera.
- can recognise fingers and hand orientation.
If this theory turns out to be correct, it's going to add a serious wad of cost to the hardware production that would inflate the launch cost way over what we've seen before. So again, the sub model comes into play. It'll be interesting to see what Sony will come up with in the motion control space too.
#randomthoughts
Last edited by Charger: 05-May-12 at 12:21pm