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http://www.nature.com/news/anarchist...cience-1.10729
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That's fucking disgusting.

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The group targeted Adinolfi because he is a “sorcerer of the atom”,

These guys are nuts. Every day, science affects them in entirely good ways yet ignore it all due to fanaticism.
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How many anarchists does it take to change a lightbulb?

None, cause those useless fucks will never change a fucking thing.

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I know lets get back at science by using science, that will show them!
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Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey View Post

How many anarchists does it take to change a lightbulb?

None, cause those useless fucks will never change a fucking thing.

Unless they form a coalition with the Communists and seize power in a coup kill all their political opponents then get betrayed and executed by their Communist allies anyway.
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North Carolina had decided the best way to deal with sea level rise is to legislate how it's measured

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...-rise-illegal/
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From now on I am going to describe myself as a 'sorcerer of the neuron'. Suck it anarchists.

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Originally Posted by B_e_de View Post

It's the same as going out on a busy street and looking at the people around you, most of them are fgts.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by liberabit View Post

North Carolina had decided the best way to deal with sea level rise is to legislate how it's measured

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...-rise-illegal/

That owns.

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How about you people actually learn a little thing called having a fucking conscious and not being heartless sociopath you piece of shit.

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Trying to stop capitalism by attacking scientists? Anarchism, you are doing it wrong.
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so wtf is with Italy jailing scientist for not predicting something that's inpossible to predict atm anyway

ABC news story

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They were charged with negligence and malpractice in evaluating the danger of an earthquake and keeping the city informed of the risks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Someone who's sister died in the quake

We only wanted this because we do not want a vendetta. Obviously my sister will never return, she won't return today nor ever again.

But we are tired that in this country whoever is at a certain level of responsibility can neglect their responsibilities.


People really need to understand what these scientists are doing before they start saying they've been negligent
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totally fucked, I need to read a bit more on it but the furore over this from the scientific community has been huge. apparently someone needs to be found guilty and punished.

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Originally Posted by Tristan View Post

well done sofu, perhaps your most offensive post yet!

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this gives little more insight
http://theconversation.edu.au/scient...-but-why-10292
and from a year ago
https://theconversation.edu.au/mansl...tershocks-3477

It seems to be a very unfortunate situation in that officials were practically forced to declare "it's safe" because there was a guy causing panic by going around saying that a big earthquake was imminent.
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thanks for the links horst

so it seems that the issue is that a public anouncement was made after the first quakes

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Franco Barbieri ended the meeting by saying there was "no reason to say that a sequence of shocks of low magnitude can be considered a precursor of a strong event."
On television, Bernardo de Bernadinis, then the deputy director of the civil protection department, tried to reassure the population. "The scientific community keeps saying the situation is favorable because of the continuous discharge of energy," said de Bernadinis.

Then the public has wrongly taken this to mean there would be no large quake which I very much doubt is what they meant. Again it's a failure of people to understand the nuances of scientific communication, the public can't handle probabilities, they take everything as black or white.

Another comment from a 'victim'

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"The State's main duty is to provide security," argued Aldo Scimia, whose mother was killed. "And they failed."

the world is dangerous and unpredictable, and to think the State can provide complete security is just infantile.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by liberabit View Post

Then the public has wrongly taken this to mean there would be no large quake which I very much doubt is what they meant. Again it's a failure of people to understand the nuances of scientific communication, the public can't handle probabilities, they take everything as black or white.

the world is dangerous and unpredictable, and to think the State can provide complete security is just infantile.

I don't agree based on what I have read. From what I have this is not the publics' fault.

The failure as I see it is an inadequate Major Risks Commission risk assessment and communication framework. The framework should include an appropriate, normalised and consistent system for translating probabilistic seismic assessments into risk categories, based on the hazard/impact assessments of the regions, including taking into account public response behaviour and building age and integrity. Those categories should then have pre-defined response actions and standardised communication protocols (which includes primary uncontradicted communication by one and only one authority).

It seems pretty evident to me that the decision making was ad hoc and open to misinterpretation by those responsible for risk communication.

This is pretty typical for Italy and some other countries, and on the downside, it's also quite typical for people in positions of responsibility in those countries to be prosecuted. It sounds like the scientists made errors, because in fact they acted unscientifically. But I don't think they should be imprisoned.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by horst View Post

this gives little more insight
http://theconversation.edu.au/scient...-but-why-10292
and from a year ago
https://theconversation.edu.au/mansl...tershocks-3477

It seems to be a very unfortunate situation in that officials were practically forced to declare "it's safe" because there was a guy causing panic by going around saying that a big earthquake was imminent.

I wonder if this case will be done in the future in reverse on politicians and business people on a global scale in relation to climate change denial.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Geezah View Post

I wonder if this case will be done in the future in reverse on politicians and business people on a global scale in relation to climate change denial.

In the US there will certainly be civil action on this. In fact I think you will see civil action taken in many parts of the world, and where possible, civil action under statutory provisions.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by claude glass View Post

I don't agree based on what I have read. From what I have this is not the publics' fault.

The failure as I see it is an inadequate Major Risks Commission risk assessment and communication framework. The framework should include an appropriate, normalised and consistent system for translating probabilistic seismic assessments into risk categories, based on the hazard/impact assessments of the regions, including taking into account public response behaviour and building age and integrity. Those categories should then have pre-defined response actions and standardised communication protocols (which includes primary uncontradicted communication by one and only one authority).
...

yeah, I was trying to dig out what the actual press release / conference was so we'd know exactly what was said but I couldn't find it. But it seems the Major Risks Commission got advice from the experts, then made they own statement based on them to the public, with slight communication failures with each step.

I'm not a geologist, but my understanding is that having a number of smaller quakes tends to release stresses and make a larger quake far less likely, which seems to be the main point under contention, with that being communicated to the public, and the messge being understood as "it's all good, no big one on the way"

Still seems a big stretch to then jail the experts for answering to the best of their knowledge but still getting it wrong, which seems to be a major point being raised in the debate about it. No-one's going to want to take the risk of being wrong if they get that badly punished for it, so in future Italy will be even less prepared.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Geezah View Post

I wonder if this case will be done in the future in reverse on politicians and business people on a global scale in relation to climate change denial.

or the GFC, or relax of environmental laws for mining, or the UN for inaction over acts of genocide...

the list goes on.

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Originally Posted by Tristan View Post

well done sofu, perhaps your most offensive post yet!

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Quote:

Originally Posted by liberabit View Post

I'm not a geologist, but my understanding is that having a number of smaller quakes tends to release stresses and make a larger quake far less likely, which seems to be the main point under contention, with that being communicated to the public, and the messge being understood as "it's all good, no big one on the way"

Do not believe this is the case. Large quakes are generally preceded by smaller quakes (something like 40% of large quakes AFAIK), but only a very small percentage of all small quakes precede a large one. They are not predictive.

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Originally Posted by B_e_de View Post

It's the same as going out on a busy street and looking at the people around you, most of them are fgts.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by liberabit View Post

yeah, I was trying to dig out what the actual press release / conference was so we'd know exactly what was said but I couldn't find it. But it seems the Major Risks Commission got advice from the experts, then made they own statement based on them to the public, with slight communication failures with each step.

I'm not a geologist, but my understanding is that having a number of smaller quakes tends to release stresses and make a larger quake far less likely, which seems to be the main point under contention, with that being communicated to the public, and the messge being understood as "it's all good, no big one on the way"

Still seems a big stretch to then jail the experts for answering to the best of their knowledge but still getting it wrong, which seems to be a major point being raised in the debate about it. No-one's going to want to take the risk of being wrong if they get that badly punished for it, so in future Italy will be even less prepared.

What I am saying is (from much experience) that what was missing was a standard approach to assessing the risk, deciding on a risk category, and then having a set response and message. Which, as an example, is what this has http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/about/atws.shtml. (That's an example, I recognise you get much higher probabilities with a tsunami.) The experts were part of the Major Risks Commission. What they didn't have is standardised protocols. If you have standardised protocols personal liability is minimised, and you can also point to those after the fact so you can't be accused of being alarmist. The variability is systemised out. I completely agree jail is wrong.
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so, just had a chat to the geologist sitting across from me and he raised a point I hadn't considered regarding small quakes preceeding larger ones; it's highly dependent on the environment and the cause. In my head I was mostly thinking of tectonic plate movement, for which it's mostly true to say you don't get smaller quakes before a large one; but in cases such as Italy were the quake is more liekly to be caused by magma movement then it is likely to get smaller quakes as the pressure builds.


-ed-

claude, your point regarding that they should have some sort of risk category / quantification is a good one, I think that system works well for these situations (bushfire risks is a similar example that comes to mind), it does seem that the MRC really could have handled / communicated things better, but as to whether they were so bad to be classed as negligent...
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Last edited by liberabit: 24-Oct-12 at 02:35pm

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Quote:

Originally Posted by liberabit View Post

so, just had a chat to the geologist sitting across from me and he raised a point I hadn't considered regarding small quakes preceeding larger ones; it's highly dependent on the environment and the cause. In my head I was mostly thinking of tectonic plate movement, for which it's mostly true to say you don't get smaller quakes before a large one; but in cases such as Italy were the quake is more liekly to be caused by magma movement then it is likely to get smaller quakes as the pressure builds.


-ed-

claude, your point regarding that they should have some sort of risk category / quantification is a good one, I think that system works well for these situations (bushfire risks is a similar example that comes to mind), it does seem that the MRC really could have handled / communicated things better, but as to whether they were so bad to be classed as negligent...

well... I know they work because I have set them up
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follow up story

Quote:

Wiretap evidence suggests that Guido Bertolaso, then a chief of civil protection, ordered one of the defendants to issue a reassuring statement. A newly released audio recording also appears to show Bertolaso trying to conceal information in the aftermath of the quake.

Quote:

The fallout from the verdict continues. Three senior members of Italy's National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks, which is at the centre of the case, have resigned, saying it is now impossible to do their work.

I don't think the 1st quote is surprising, or that it'll change much, maybe just put another head on the chopping block, but the 2nd point is the key one, if no-ones willing to take the risks from the job Italy won't have any warning next time.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by liberabit View Post

follow up story





I don't think the 1st quote is surprising, or that it'll change much, maybe just put another head on the chopping block, but the 2nd point is the key one, if no-ones willing to take the risks from the job Italy won't have any warning next time.

Yeah well it's hardly surprising, is it?
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Well that's one way to solve their government's solvency issues.

Make sure no-one is willing to work for the government so no-one can collect a government paycheck.

What could go wrong? They should totally pass that plan onto Greece.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by claude glass View Post

Yeah well it's hardly surprising, is it?


nope, not at all
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