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International politics
Great article by Jeffrey Sachs on the lessons of history.... and why we have Putin.
Viewpoint: Why the shadow of WW1 and 1989 hangs over world events

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30483873
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And here proof that you can't hold onto a grudge for ever.
Cuba USA relations thawing
http://www.smh.com.au/world/cubaname...18-129mkr.html
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yeah, that's incredible. It will be interesting to see how it's managed and whether the floodgates will open for tourists.
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the republicans will vote it down
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Originally Posted by Portal View Post

the republicans will vote it down

mebbe, but it'll be impossible not to look like complete arses while doing so, even more so than usual.
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Who holds Florida at the moment? The democrats would probably be sacrificing that by pissing off the Cuban expat lobby.
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Originally Posted by Bracko View Post

yeah, that's incredible. It will be interesting to see how it's managed and whether the floodgates will open for tourists.

The answer will come between 2018 and we should know by 2020. 2018 is when the Castro's finally step down and the reigns of the Government are handed too the "post-revolution" generation, who Raul has filled the Communist party with recently.

What will be interesting to watch is which way Cuba's reforms swing. Cuba currently is pushing a massive economic reform program where they "privatize" state businesses, by converting the state enterprise into democratic worker cooperatives which are owned by the workers, it will be interesting too see if post 2018 if this program continues, or the "new generation" just pull a Deng Xiaopeng or current Kim Jong Un and start pushing through the "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" reforms (Authoritarian state-private capitalist economy)

Disappointing that the terrorists from USAID got released and Luis Posada Carriles still fucking walks the streets as a free man in Miami despite being one of the most dangerous murderous terrorists on earth, though good work getting the Cuban 5 all finally free.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Portal View Post

the republicans will vote it down

It's nothing to do with a vote, he can change a lot through executive order.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey View Post

Who holds Florida at the moment? The democrats would probably be sacrificing that by pissing off the Cuban expat lobby.

Florida has been knife edge for a few elections but was won by the Dems last time.

Thing is, the Cuban community is starting to swing Democrat... shrewd move by Obama.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by horst View Post

Great article by Jeffrey Sachs on the lessons of history.... and why we have Putin.
Viewpoint: Why the shadow of WW1 and 1989 hangs over world events

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30483873

That's a great article.

It's amazing that people seem to fall so easily for western propaganda and believe that NATO has absolutely nothing to do with Russia's actions at the moment, on Reddit, any post that is critical of western policy is quickly downvoted and entire threads are just pro-US circlejerks. I've been told numerous times "NATO has never had a interest in Russia until this recent Ukraine crisis" and those get upvoted like 2 thousand times.

What bullshit, The entire purpose of NATO is to stem Russian influence, it's literally it's stated goal. Every NATO conference is basically about Russia and NATO has been openly hostile towards Russia since Putin rode to power.

http://fromalpha2omega.podomatic.com...2_13-07_00.mp3
Decent podcast on the actions of NATO from a NATO expert/historian.

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/j...ar-documentary
John Pilger is also doing a doco on the US pivot towards Asia.
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Kiron do you happen to believe what you read in Pravda?
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Europe's 2015 and 2016 elections will be interesting. This event appears to be a bit of a watershed.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by trist View Post

Europe's 2015 and 2016 elections will be interesting. This event appears to be a bit of a watershed.

Europeans would be better off focussing on the economic shitstorm they are experiencing rather than race relations, although those pressures are probably a significant factor in racial tensions. Eurozone unemployment is sitting around 12%, Youth unemployment is around 23% (its 23% in France).
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Originally Posted by Hal Jordan View Post

Europeans would be better off focussing on the economic shitstorm they are experiencing rather than race relations, although those pressures are probably a significant factor in racial tensions. Eurozone unemployment is sitting around 12%, Youth unemployment is around 23% (its 23% in France).

economics (ie mass importation of labour) is a key factor in what has created the social discord in western Europe.
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Originally Posted by trist View Post

economics (ie mass importation of labour) is a key factor in what has created the social discord in western Europe.

Their banking system and monetary union being jeffed (ie the real economic problem) has fuck all to do with that.
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Russia and Ukraine falling apart economically won't help them either. Maybe it all goes so bad Germany seizes back Danzig and Koenigsberg?
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Quote:

Originally Posted by big eddie View Post

Their banking system and monetary union being jeffed (ie the real economic problem) has fuck all to do with that.

^ Of course it has fuck all to do with it. That’s not my point.

The social discord in Europe has only been exacerbated since 2008, it was always there and largely swept under the carpet by the ruling elite. It appears to be coming to the fore now for a variety of reasons.
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Originally Posted by gravyishot View Post

Russia and Ukraine falling apart economically won't help them either. Maybe it all goes so bad Germany seizes back Danzig and Koenigsberg?

huzzah! While they're at it, why not stop by Silesia and Bohemia?
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Originally Posted by trist View Post

Europe's 2015 and 2016 elections will be interesting. This event appears to be a bit of a watershed.

Podemos and SYRIZA are going to be the main interesting things.

First time in 30 years actual real left wing parties seizing power in the west.
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Originally Posted by Kiron View Post

Podemos and SYRIZA are going to be the main interesting things.

First time in 30 years actual real left wing parties seizing power in the west.

Syriza kicking off the grexit will make things 'interesting' all right. Hope everyone's getting their shorts ready. The bear is back.

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Originally Posted by gravyishot View Post

Russia and Ukraine falling apart economically won't help them either. Maybe it all goes so bad Germany seizes back Danzig and Koenigsberg?

What that article doesn't mention is the role of OPEC in the trashing of Russia, and among all this hand wringing over fundamentalist Islam no one seems to mind the amorous Saudi-US leadership ties.
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Originally Posted by Hal Jordan View Post

and among all this hand wringing over fundamentalist Islam no one seems to mind the amorous Saudi-US leadership ties.

I think that is changing (well I hope it is).
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Originally Posted by trist View Post

I think that is changing (well I hope it is).

The ties changing or no one caring changing?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0KW01D20150123
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Originally Posted by Hal Jordan View Post

and among all this hand wringing over fundamentalist Islam no one seems to mind the amorous Saudi-US leadership ties.

Who doesn't? You are often calling people out for their alleged straw-men arguments or their misrepresentations of your points of view or their generalisations and stereotypes, and that isn't to say people don't do these things, but you do it too Hal. Just so you know.

I don't exclude myself from doing likewise I'll admit, but only speaking on my own behalf, if I ever make up straw-man arguments, or misrepresent, or generalise, it is usually because of a number reasons - misreading a quote, skimming a quote and missing something, my brain not having thought of every single possible point of contention at the time of posting, misunderstanding something due to reading and answering on the fly, etc. etc.

I'm pretty sure none of us are immune to this (maybe even you) but you do need to be aware that you do do it also.
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Breaking:

http://rt.com/news/225383-saudi-arabia-king-dead/


King Abdullah's death is not the best news. The next king, Salman, is even more conservative, less reform-minded, and more likely to continue trying to revive the original, pure, Salafist Islam of the Prophet.

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Not this tart again

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Geezah View Post

I don't exclude myself from doing likewise I'll admit, but only speaking on my own behalf, if I ever make up straw-man arguments, or misrepresent, or generalise, it is usually because of a number reasons - misreading a quote, skimming a quote and missing something, my brain not having thought of every single possible point of contention at the time of posting, misunderstanding something due to reading and answering on the fly, coming home at 2am with 10 pints under my belt, etc. etc.

fixed
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Originally Posted by esoteric31 View Post

Breaking:

http://rt.com/news/225383-saudi-arabia-king-dead/


King Abdullah's death is not the best news. The next king, Salman, is even more conservative, less reform-minded, and more likely to continue trying to revive the original, pure, Salafist Islam of the Prophet.

indeed. Saudi Arabia should be treated by the world like North Korea is.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Geezah View Post

Who doesn't? You are often calling people out for their alleged straw-men arguments or their misrepresentations of your points of view or their generalisations and stereotypes, and that isn't to say people don't do these things, but you do it too Hal. Just so you know.

I don't exclude myself from doing likewise I'll admit, but only speaking on my own behalf, if I ever make up straw-man arguments, or misrepresent, or generalise, it is usually because of a number reasons - misreading a quote, skimming a quote and missing something, my brain not having thought of every single possible point of contention at the time of posting, misunderstanding something due to reading and answering on the fly, etc. etc.

I'm pretty sure none of us are immune to this (maybe even you) but you do need to be aware that you do do it also.

Not sure I was referring to anyone here, but it tends to make alternate media news not mainstream news. This is the first time in the history of OPEC it hasn't maintained price by constraining supply. What you have is the middle east colluding with the US to bring down Russia. While it is doing this, it threatens to wipe out the small tight oil producers who are doing most of the shale oil production. The ramifications of that are immense, because there will be massive defaults which could trigger another meltdown. But everyone's attention is on a handful of radicals.
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Originally Posted by trist View Post

indeed. Saudi Arabia should be treated by the world like North Korea is.

Agree. And the US should stop plying the region with arms, except that it can't.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Hal Jordan View Post

Not sure I was referring to anyone here, but it tends to make alternate media news not mainstream news. This is the first time in the history of OPEC it hasn't maintained price by constraining supply. What you have is the middle east colluding with the US to bring down Russia. While it is doing this, it threatens to wipe out the small tight oil producers who are doing most of the shale oil production. The ramifications of that are immense, because there will be massive defaults which could trigger another meltdown. But everyone's attention is on a handful of radicals.

Ok. You just weren't very clear is all. Plus I dropped my angry pills too (the critique still stands but I'll try to be nice, I know you like that ).

Isn't it a good thing though that shale oil production stops? Isn't it the filthiest of all oil production?
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Hal Jordan View Post

Not sure I was referring to anyone here, but it tends to make alternate media news not mainstream news. This is the first time in the history of OPEC it hasn't maintained price by constraining supply. What you have is the middle east colluding with the US to bring down Russia. While it is doing this, it threatens to wipe out the small tight oil producers who are doing most of the shale oil production. The ramifications of that are immense, because there will be massive defaults which could trigger another meltdown. But everyone's attention is on a handful of radicals.

IS OPEC colluding with the US? I’m not so sure. The Saudis main game is probably to destroy Iran so they can dominate the region, it also helps them by hurting Russia too as they are a major ally and financier of Iran and Assad. The Saudis also want to wipe out the US shale oil producers in order to restrain the US in its attempt to become energy independent. It is complex.
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A very important edit.
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Originally Posted by Geezah View Post

Ok. You just weren't very clear is all. Plus I dropped my angry pills too (the critique still stands but I'll try to be nice, I know you like that ).

Isn't it a good thing though that shale oil production stops? Isn't it the filthiest of all oil production?

From that perspective yes. From the perspective that 200 billion dollars of debt is funding US oil companies, no.
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Originally Posted by trist View Post

IS OPEC colluding with the US? I’m not so sure. The Saudis main game is probably to destroy Iran so they can dominate the region, it also helps them by hurting Russia too as they are a major ally and financier of Iran and Assad. The Saudis also want to wipe out the US shale oil producers in order to restrain the US in its attempt to become energy independent. It is complex.

Iran too, yes.
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George Soros apres ski fireside chat

http://qz.com/331802/george-soros-th...-over-ukraine/
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Originally Posted by Hal Jordan View Post

Iran too, yes.

but would the US willingly undermine its bourgeoning shale oil industry that is helping it achieve energy independence - with all the long term foreign policy advantages that brings, just to get Putin and bring down Khamenei? Especially now that IS has become the greatest threat to the region and Iran is providing the backbone of the Iraqi Government to reclaim its lost territory.
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IS OPEC colluding with the US? I’m not so sure.

Yeah, I've read a few expert opinions now that say just that, I still don't understand, this must be the most audacious aggressive trade attack ever conceived, this must be costing OPEC in the trillion dollar range.
It may well be what killed Abdullah, when he found out how much this is costing him.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by trist View Post

but would the US willingly undermine its bourgeoning shale oil industry that is helping it achieve energy independence - with all the long term foreign policy advantages that brings, just to get Putin and bring down Khamenei? Especially now that IS has become the greatest threat to the region and Iran is providing the backbone of the Iraqi Government to reclaim its lost territory.

Cheaper oil is always good for the US, regardless of whether its achieved via energy independence or not.
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Originally Posted by gravyishot View Post

Cheaper oil is always good for the US, regardless of whether its achieved via energy independence or not.

This is true. There is a view that the financial crisis was triggered by the record high oil price . I agree with horst though that it is a massively high stakes game that is being played out.
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Cheaper oil is always good for the US, regardless of whether its achieved via energy independence or not.

It’s only been achieved though because the US became the world’s largest oil producer last year on the back of the shale oil industry. Hence catch-22.
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It’s only been achieved though because the US became the world’s largest oil producer last year on the back of the shale oil industry. Hence catch-22.

That's only part of the picture. The other important part of the picture is weaker demand. What's interesting is the price crashed around the same time Fed QE ended.

Last edited by Hal Jordan: 23-Jan-15 at 05:10pm

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That's only part of the picture. The other important part of the picture is weaker demand. What's interesting is the price crashed around the same time Fed QE ended.

It's most of the picture. Weaker demand is actually weaker demand growth. World demand is still growing and is predicted to increase its rate of growth in 2015-2016. These fluctuations in demand growth are pretty normal. What is starkly different however is the enormous growth of US oil production over the past 3 years. It has changed the game.
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Its not much different to what BHP/RIO/Vale are doing with Iron Ore. This just has more geopolitical impact.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by trist View Post

It's most of the picture. Weaker demand is actually weaker demand growth. World demand is still growing and is predicted to increase its rate of growth in 2015-2016. These fluctuations in demand growth are pretty normal. What is starkly different however is the enormous growth of US oil production over the past 3 years. It has changed the game.

Yes weaker demand growth thanks for the correction.

"Macroeconomic weakness continues to restrain global oil demand growth, the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for January told subscribers, with fourth quarter 2014 deliveries estimated just 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) above year-earlier levels. Despite lower prices, with Brent crude futures near a six-year low, demand growth is forecast to accelerate only 0.9 mb/d in 2015, unchanged from the outlook in the December report.

The oil selloff has cut expectations of 2015 non-OPEC supply growth by 350 000 barrels per day (350 kb/d) since last month, to 950 kb/d. Effects on North American supply are so far limited to 95 kb/d and 80 kb/d to the Canadian and US forecasts, respectively. Projections are cut by 175 kb/d for Colombia and 30 kb/d for Russia."

The fact is that there have been non-OPEC bubbles in the past and OPEC has always responded by cutting production. Not this time.

The issue now is that US well numbers are falling and the US surplus from LTO may dry up.
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http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ntonis-samaras

CEEEEELLLLLEEBRATE GOOD SYRIZA C'MON, SYRIZA RIZA!
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so what are Syriza proposing in Greece?
Spend like fuck and dig ourselves into a nicer furnished deepsr hole?

I like their idea of not repaying any interest on the 280 billion they were previously given. Other nations will love the write off and will be super keen to assist Greece should Syriza fuck everything up. Which is exactly what a coalition of Trotskyist, Marxist and other far left people will undoubtedly do.

I wonder how many years the different factions will spend deciding how to pronounce their party's name if they gain power?
Never mind the bollocks
Here's Lambretta
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https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/01/s...european-left/
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/01/phase-one/

Good read here in both of these articles (Second one has a index on the side so you can just skip to the parts you want to know)

http://www.channel4.com/news/we-are-...igarchy-system

Also interview with the soon to be finance minister.
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INDEXASX:XGD - next best thing to a sure bet in the current climate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gotamangina View Post

I hate it when you're right and I'm not.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Lambretta View Post

so what are Syriza proposing in Greece?
Spend like fuck and dig ourselves into a nicer furnished deepsr hole?

If I learned anything over the past eight years then it is that money/debt is paper with ink on it. It doesn't matter where it comes from and where it vanishes to because they will simply create more of it if they sense that the power system is at risk of toppling. Hence it doesn't matter if one is wasteful, careless or ignorant. Any money/debt lost from circulation to drive inflation will simply be replaced by new money/debt. All is forgiven.
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Media Player

This is the Guardian and European left at the moment
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